New Delhi, Aug 16: New Delhi’s carefully crafted balancing act between Washington and Moscow faces fresh turbulence after the much-anticipated Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to produce a breakthrough.
The Modi government, which had quietly rooted for an agreement that could ease the Ukraine war, now confronts the fallout of continued hostilities — both in terms of energy security and looming punitive trade measures.
For India, the sharpest consequence is the renewed threat of secondary US tariffs. Washington has already imposed a 50 per cent levy on Indian exports, half of it linked to India’s decision to continue importing Russian crude oil. Officials in South Block had hoped a ceasefire in Ukraine or even a preliminary deal at Alaska would have created the space for waivers. Instead, the standoff means trade negotiations with the US remain in limbo, with little sign of tariff relief.
The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned before the summit that more sanctions were possible if no peace deal emerged. He even urged European nations to cut imports of refined petroleum products from India, signalling growing discomfort with India’s role in processing and re-exporting Russian crude. In Washington, a major bill awaits Congressional approval that would give Trump sweeping powers to slap tariffs of up to 500 per cent on countries accused of “sustaining Moscow’s war.”
Why Russian oil matters to India
Since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, India has emerged as a major buyer of discounted Russian oil, cushioning its economy against volatile global prices. New Delhi has consistently argued that these purchases are driven by energy security imperatives for 1.4 billion people, not geopolitical alignment. “Our imports are based on market factors,” the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) reiterated last week, calling US punitive tariffs “unfortunate” and pointing out that several other countries, including the US, still conduct trade with Russia.
Just days before the Alaska meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Putin spoke by phone, reaffirming their “special and privileged strategic partnership.” Modi’s post on X describing the conversation as “very good and detailed” underlined India’s intent to stand by Moscow even as it faces pressure from Washington. For Putin, highlighting India’s solidarity bolstered his narrative of not being isolated despite the West’s sanctions drive.
At Alaska, the optics of Trump and Putin standing side by side gave the impression of progress, but the substance fell short. Putin hinted at an “important agreement” in the making, while Trump talked of “considerable progress” yet admitted there was no deal and no ceasefire. The sticking point, widely understood to be Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, remained unresolved.
The deadlock means continued instability in Europe and the global economy. It also prolongs the squeeze on nations like India, caught between strategic partnerships with both Washington and Moscow.
India had publicly endorsed the summit, hoping it could “open the prospects for peace.” Its absence now complicates decision-making in New Delhi. With Trump warning of “very severe consequences” if Russia refuses to compromise, and Putin stressing Europe’s role in upholding any understanding, the geopolitical ground has only hardened.
For India, the challenge is stark:
- Tilt towards the US, and risk undermining decades-old strategic and defence cooperation with Russia.
- Stand firmly with Russia, and invite harsher trade penalties from Washington.
- Straddle the middle, and risk being squeezed by both sides.
In the short term, New Delhi may seek more breathing space in its energy decisions while pushing back against punitive tariffs. But the Alaska stalemate makes it clear that India’s room for manoeuvre is shrinking, and its diplomacy will be tested like rarely before.
