SHANGHAI/BEIJING, May 17: Despite a short-term increase in Antarctic ice mass between 2021 and 2023, researchers warn that this should not be seen as a reversal of global warming. A new study from Tongji University in Shanghai, based on NASA satellite data, reveals that the overall trend over the past two decades is still one of significant ice loss.
Using data from NASA’s GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellite missions, scientists have been tracking changes in the Antarctic ice sheet — the largest single mass of ice on Earth — since 2002. Their analysis found that between 2002 and 2020, the ice sheet steadily lost mass, with the rate of loss nearly doubling over the period. From 2002 to 2010, Antarctica shed an average of 81 billion tons of ice per year. Between 2011 and 2020, the annual loss jumped to approximately 157 billion tons.
However, the study notes a shift beginning in 2021, with Antarctica gaining mass at an average rate of about 119 billion tons per year through 2023. This short-term gain was largely attributed to unusually high precipitation, not cooling temperatures or a structural shift in climate trends. Four glaciers in East Antarctica even reversed course, shifting from ice loss to mass gain during the period.
“It’s an important observation, but it doesn’t contradict the larger picture,” said a researcher from Tongji University. “This is a fluctuation — not a signal that global warming is stopping.”
Experts caution that climate change impacts manifest differently across the globe. “A single region can’t define the state of global warming,” the study notes. Unlike the rapidly warming Arctic, much of Antarctica has historically experienced more stable temperatures, and until recently, even its sea ice remained relatively unaffected.
That stability, however, has begun to erode. The researchers emphasize that while recent gains may appear promising, the long-term trajectory remains one of ice loss and rising global sea levels — critical markers of accelerating climate change.
