Fordow Hit Hard, But Iran’s Nuclear Future Still Uncertain

by The_unmuteenglish

WASHINGTON, June 23— Commercial satellite imagery suggests the U.S. airstrike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site may have delivered a crippling blow to the underground facility, potentially destroying its centrifuge halls, but the full extent of the damage remains unconfirmed, experts said Sunday.

“They just punched through with these MOPs,” said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, referring to the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs dropped by U.S. B-2 bombers. “I would expect that the facility is probably toast.”

Fordow, one of Iran’s most fortified nuclear sites, was buried deep into a mountain to shield it from precisely such strikes. But fresh satellite images from Maxar Technologies reviewed by Reuters show six impact craters — signs of a coordinated precision strike. The U.S. military said it dropped 14 GBU-57/B bunker-busting bombs in total, designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground.

The attack, part of a broader U.S. operation dubbed Midnight Hammer, also targeted Iran’s main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a research center in Isfahan, both of which had been previously hit by Israel during the recent 10-day war.

General Dan Caine, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed the scale of the Fordow assault. “Initial assessments indicate severe structural damage,” he told reporters, but declined to speculate whether the centrifuges or the facility’s operational core had survived.

Still, independent analysts urge caution. Decker Eveleth, a satellite imagery specialist with the CNA Corporation, said the key areas of the Fordow facility are buried so deep that assessing below-ground damage from satellite imagery is nearly impossible. “The hall containing the centrifuges is too deeply buried for us to evaluate the level of destruction,” Eveleth said.

Adding to the uncertainty, intelligence analysts noted “unusual activity” at Fordow in the days before the strike. Long lines of vehicles were observed outside the site, sparking speculation that Iran may have removed critical components — or even uranium stockpiles — ahead of the attack.

A senior Iranian source told Reuters that a significant quantity of highly enriched uranium — near weapons-grade at 60% purity — had already been relocated to an undisclosed site before the U.S. strike. That claim has not been independently verified.

“There’s almost certainly facilities that we don’t know about,” warned Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear arms expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “I don’t think you can with great confidence do anything but set back their nuclear program by maybe a few years.”

The same concern was echoed in Washington. “My big fear right now is that they take this entire program underground — not physically underground, but under the radar,” said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. “Where we tried to stop it, there is a possibility that this could accelerate it.”

Iran has long insisted its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. But in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes, Tehran’s parliament is now threatening to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which would end cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“The world is going to be in the dark about what Iran may be doing,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

Meanwhile, images and analysis continue to surface. Albright posted Airbus satellite imagery on X showing what appeared to be severe missile impacts at Isfahan’s uranium facility and an impact hole over Natanz’s underground halls. However, he questioned the efficacy of the U.S. using cruise missiles in Isfahan, arguing they likely couldn’t reach the deep tunnel network near the main research center.

“There may be 2,000 to 3,000 more centrifuges that were slated to go into this new enrichment plant,” Albright added. “Where are they?”

As world powers assess the fallout of Operation Midnight Hammer, analysts warn that unless Iran’s dispersed and concealed nuclear capabilities are also targeted, the campaign may have bought time — but not certainty.

 

Related Articles