Chandigarh, Oct 19: Gold prices in India are likely to stay elevated for the rest of 2025, supported by a weakening rupee, strong central bank purchases, and sustained global demand, according to a sectoral report released by ICICI Bank Global Markets.
The report projected the rupee to trade in the range of 87.00–89.00 against the US dollar during the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026, a trend expected to lend support to gold prices. Domestically, gold is anticipated to trade between ₹1.20 lakh and ₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams through the remainder of this year and could edge higher to ₹1.30–₹1.45 lakh in early 2026.
At present, the spot rate on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) stands around ₹1.31 lakh per 10 grams. “Risks to this outlook remain skewed to the upside, particularly if the rupee weakens beyond projections or global prices rise faster than expected,” the report noted.
Earlier this month, Anantha Padmanaban, founder member and former chairman of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), told ANI that gold prices could touch a record ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams in the coming months. “The yellow metal is showing unprecedented momentum, fuelled by central bank buying and robust public demand, especially in China and Japan,” Padmanaban said.
ICICI Bank’s update also pointed to sustained investment-driven demand, reflected in the steady rise of gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings. SPDR Gold Trust holdings climbed from 975 tonnes on September 13 to 1,015 tonnes by October 13, 2025. However, speculative net long positions dipped by around 8,000 during the same period.
Domestic gold prices have surged nearly 16% in the past month, a jump attributed to both global price gains and the rupee’s depreciation against the dollar. Import data also reflects the trend: India’s gold imports rose from USD 5.44 billion in August to USD 9.6 billion in September, indicating firm local demand.
“With the onset of the festive season, India’s appetite for gold is expected to remain strong, keeping import volumes high,” the report said. It added that while Indian households continue to prefer physical gold—jewellery, coins, and bars—urban investors are increasingly turning to ETFs as prices rally.
Citing data from the World Gold Council, the report said that India’s physically backed gold ETFs saw their biggest-ever monthly inflow in September. “Investor preference for gold is being reinforced by weak equity market returns and persistent geopolitical uncertainty,” ICICI Bank’s analysts mentioned, adding that ETF-related demand is likely to stay solid in the coming quarters.
Overall, analysts said the combination of a soft rupee, resilient global investment flows, and the festive buying cycle will keep gold prices well-supported in the near term. “As long as macroeconomic uncertainties and currency pressures persist, gold will continue to act as a preferred hedge,” the report concluded.
