Ottawa, April 18: As advance polling begins for the 2025 Canadian Federal Election, a dramatic political shift is unfolding — marked by the Liberal Party’s comeback under new leader Mark Carney, and a once-dominant Conservative lead evaporating into a neck-and-neck contest.
Carney’s entry following Justin Trudeau’s resignation proved pivotal. Once trailing by 20 points through 2024 and early 2025, the Liberals have rebounded under Carney’s steady, economics-focused leadership.
According to Mainstreet Research’s April 17 poll, the Liberals now command 43.5% support and 183 projected seats, compared to the Conservatives’ 40% and 135 seats — placing the Liberals at a 72.6% chance of winning a majority.
Voters appear to trust Carney more than Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, especially on the defining issue of the campaign: managing U.S. trade relations amid escalating tensions under President Donald Trump.
A Nanos Research poll found 40% of respondents trust Carney on U.S. trade, compared to 26% for Poilievre.
The Conservatives, despite earlier momentum, are now struggling to regain narrative control. Meanwhile, the NDP is grappling with declining support.
Leader Jagmeet Singh faces political headwinds, with the CBC tracker placing the party at 8.5%, risking official party status. Singh’s close ties with Trudeau and controversies over his alleged Khalistani sympathies have further eroded support, particularly among Indian-origin voters. Singh is also seen in India as having pressured Trudeau into levelling unverified allegations of Indian involvement in the killing of Khalistan ideologue Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Regionally, the Liberals are surging in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives hold a slim edge in British Columbia. Analysts say Carney’s calm, competent image — especially in the face of Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats — resonates with Canadians anxious about economic sovereignty.
With top voter concerns ranging from housing affordability (36%), healthcare (28%), taxes (18%), immigration (14%), to inflation (13%), it’s Trump’s aggressive trade stance that looms largest — elevating U.S. relations to a central issue in what has become Canada’s most volatile election in decades.
