New Delhi/Chandigarh, 31 January 2025: NASA scientists have identified an asteroid, 2024 YR4, that carries a 1-in-83 chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
Measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, the asteroid is not large enough to cause mass extinction but could unleash devastating destruction if it crashes into a major city.
Scientists estimate the impact would release energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT—more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
NASA’s initial analysis suggests that while 2024 YR4 currently has a more than 1% chance of impact, there remains a 99% likelihood that it will miss Earth.
Such early predictions are subject to revision as astronomers collect more data. No other known large asteroids currently pose an impact risk above 1%.
The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile, which then reported its findings to the Minor Planet Center—the global hub for tracking small celestial bodies.
On December 31, 2024, 2024 YR4 was added to NASA’s Sentry risk list, which tracks near-Earth asteroids with a nonzero chance of collision.
Similar cases in the past have seen asteroids rise on the risk list before being downgraded or removed as additional observations refine their projected trajectories.
Scientists anticipate that ongoing monitoring could lead to 2024 YR4 being reassigned a 0% impact probability as more data is gathered.
