New Delhi, 18 February: A recently discovered asteroid has jumped to the top of NASA’s impact risk list after new observations doubled its chances of striking Earth in 2032. Designated YR4 2024, the space rock measures between 131 and 295 feet—comparable to a building—and could cause catastrophic damage if it collides with the planet.
Scientists estimate a 1-in-48 probability of impact, prompting intensified tracking efforts. NASA’s Near-Earth Object Studies division has been monitoring the asteroid since its discovery by the ATLAS system on December 27, 2024.
The latest images, captured by Chile’s Gemini South Telescope, offer a clearer view of YR4’s movement. However, observing the faint asteroid posed challenges.
“The bright moon and the asteroid’s speed—0.26 arcseconds per minute—made tracking difficult,” said NASA astronomer Bryce Bolin. His team took multiple long-exposure images to refine calculations.
Despite the rising impact odds, experts caution that this is part of normal trajectory adjustments. “Only a few asteroids have been studied like this,” Bolin noted.
NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope in early March for further analysis. Its advanced infrared instruments will help determine YR4’s precise size and assess the potential impact.
If the asteroid were to strike, scientists estimate the energy release could reach 8 megatons of TNT—enough to obliterate an area the size of Washington, D.C.
Asteroid expert David Rankin reassured the public that as more data becomes available, the impact probability is likely to decline. “These initial figures tend to shift as we refine our models,” he said.
