New Delhi, 9 December 2024: The unfolding political crisis in Syria, marked by a potential fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the rise of opposition forces, is poised to ripple across the region, affecting India’s political and economic interests in the Middle East. India’s longstanding diplomatic ties with Syria, rooted in shared historical, cultural, and civilizational connections, could face a significant recalibration amidst these developments.
India and Syria have enjoyed strong bilateral relations, which flourished during Assad’s tenure. Both nations engaged in regular diplomatic exchanges and voiced mutual support on key issues. India backed Syria’s claims over Golan Heights and the Palestinian cause, while Syria endorsed the resolution of Kashmir as an internal matter. At the United Nations, India opposed sanctions on Syria, advocating instead for humanitarian relief in the war-torn nation.
However, the potential takeover by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—a fundamentalist group with roots in Al-Qaeda—poses serious concerns for India’s regional strategy. “HTS’s rise to power could introduce instability, further complicating India’s relations in the Middle East,” said a geopolitical analyst. This development may also amplify Turkey’s influence, as Ankara has been a staunch supporter of Syrian rebels under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
India’s robust ties with Damascus have been a gateway for strengthening relations with other Middle Eastern nations. The fall of Assad could disrupt this trajectory, forcing New Delhi to rethink its approach in the region. Experts warn that such a power shift could align the new Syrian administration with ideologies that are less favorable to India’s interests.
As Syria grapples with internal divisions and political uncertainty, India is likely to adopt a cautious stance, closely monitoring the evolving situation. Adapting to a transformed Syria will be crucial for safeguarding its strategic foothold in the Middle East. “The stakes are high, and India’s policy decisions in the coming months will determine the depth of its engagement with the region,” noted another analyst.
While the crisis in Syria unfolds, India faces the challenge of navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape where stability in the Arab Republic is pivotal to regional peace and broader international relations.
